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How to Find a Black Cat in a Coal Cellar: The Truth about Sports Tipsters by Joseph Buchdahl
How do we know if a tipster can beat the bookmaker? That's easy: just look at his bank balance. But how do we know if he's not just been lucky? This book examines the techniques available to answer that question and to help the punter find value for money in an industry that is largely built on amateurism, trust and the influence of chance.
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Stephen Hawking, the famous theoretical physicist, cosmologist and author once said of his research into black holes that it seemed a bit "like looking for a black cat in a coal cellar." Genuinely remarkable sports tipsters are hard to find too. They certainly exist, but are well hidden and difficult to distinguish against a background of self adulation and self proclamation to be the best, the most unique and the most effective at making you rich. They can't all be telling the truth. If they were, the bookmakers would have called it a day long ago.

The origins and nature of the universe don't have a great deal in common with sports betting. The metaphor, however, is fitting since in some cultures the black cat is considered to be a harbinger of good fortune in gambling. Of course, real star performers in the world of sports betting have nothing to do with luck, but nevertheless, let's stick with it. How can we recognise a truly skilful forecaster of sports – let's call him a 'black cat' – when so many of them tell us the same story of profitability? Answering that question is the focus of this book. Furthermore, the knowledge and skills which readers will acquire will not only help them identify expertise elsewhere, but also better understand their own approach to sports betting and whether they have what it takes to make a success of it.

How to Find a Black Cat in a Coal Cellar investigates:

  • Why betting favourites can lose less money than longshots
  • Why some bookmakers are more efficient than others
  • Why some bookmakers accept winners whilst others do not
  • Why the most generous bookmakers might be the hardest to beat
  • How a punter can make money from knowing nothing about sport
  • How to analyse a betting record or a history of tips
  • How to tell the difference between chance and skill
  • Why some profits are more reliable than others
  • Why a superior return does not always mean a superior tipster
  • Why the cost and quality of betting advice usually have nothing in common
  • Why some sports are more profitable than others
  • Why some tipsters stop winning
  • What some tipsters will do to get what they want
  • How to find best tipsters – the 'Black Cats'

Also by the same author Fixed Odds Sports Betting
This book examines, through various numerical techniques, how fixed odds punters may learn to beat the bookmaker, protect profits through a sensible approach to risk management, and turn high-risk gambling into a form of low-risk investment. Topics include value betting, rating systems, profitability and risk, singles vs accies, staking plans and money management, favourite-longshot bias and significance testing.
Order from Amazon or High Stakes.


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